State of the Nation: Interest rates increase as the pressures of inflation felt across the economy

SCDI’s latest State of the Nation briefing for January brings together all of the latest data, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy in one place, so you don’t have to.

Key points

  • Interest rates increase to 0.25%.
  • Inflation (CPIH) rose by 4.6% in the 12 months to November 2021with a forecasted rise to up to 6% in April 2022 – above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
  • Scotland’s GDP grew at a rate of 0.2% in October. The Fraser of Allander Institute forecasts the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels in May 2022.
  • Productivity for the UK as a whole rose in in the period July to September but at much reduced rates relative to the earlier two quarters.
  • Retail sales are down 13.4% compared to pre-pandemic trading
  • Shop prices rose by 0.3% compared with November 2020, the first annual increase since May 2019.
  • Unfilled vacancies hit a new record high, with Scotland accounting for half of the top 10 hiring hotspots in the UK.
  • The jobless rate decreasing to pre-pandemic levels of 3.6% with 16,000 more Scots in work than pre-pandemic levels.
  • The estimated number of businesses in Scotland fell by 19,805, a drop of 5.4% between March 2020 and March 2021.

Download the briefing below, which is published in partnership with DailyBusiness.


State of the Nation / January


State of the Nation / December


State of the Nation / November