State of the Nation: Forecasts of recovery by 2022 boost confidence, but youth unemployment surges

New, more optimistic forecasts of the Scottish economy returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2022 are backed by the latest statistics showing a surge in inflation and consumer spending, according to SCDI’s latest State of the Nation briefing for June.

But this boost for business confidence is offset by continued reliance on furlough to protect 880,000 jobs across the UK and rising youth unemployment, which now stands at 13% in Scotland.

Key points

  • Official data confirms Scottish economy shrank by 9.6% in 2020
  • New forecasts suggest Scotland’s GDP will recover to pre-pandemic levels in early 2022
  • Business confidence up 15% in May
  • Youth unemployment rises to over 13%
  • Cumulatively, over 2 billion working days have been furloughed to date
  • Interest rates still 0.1% – and unlikely to increase before 2022
  • Inflation surges to 1.5%, house prices up 10.2%

Download the briefing below for all the latest data, forecasts and analysis in one place.

Our briefing is published in partnership with DailyBusiness.


State of the Nation / June


State of the Nation / May


Impact of Brexit BRIEFING