State of the Nation: Scotland’s fragile recovery

The fragility of Scotland’s uneven recovery from the ongoing COVID-19 crisis is clear in SCDI’s new State of the Nation briefing for October.

The latest edition of the monthly briefing – which brings together all of the latest data and forecasts about the Scottish economy in one place – highlights that Scotland has made up roughly half of its lost economic ground as GDP grew for the third consecutive month.

The Scottish private sector returned to growth in August, with an especially strong bounce back in sectors like Construction. ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ was also a big boost to the struggling hospitality sector, helping to stimulate some consumer spending and bring inflation down sharply.

However, consumer confidence and business confidence remain weak, and are likely to weaken further with the partial return of lockdown restrictions from late September.

Scotland needs an investment-led, state-led Green Recovery.

Key points

  • Scottish GDP grew by 6.8% in July, making up some lost ground, with economy now 10.7% smaller than in February.
  • 80% of Scottish businesses say the new local and national lockdowns are their biggest concern.
  • Steepest productivity drop on record as millions of workers were stuck on furlough or worked from home.
  • Interests rates remain at record low of 0.1%.
  • Inflation falls sharply to 0.2%, largely due to ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme’s impact on cafe and restaurant prices.
  • Unemployment rises to 4.6% with worse still to come.

Download our latest State of the Nation briefing below for all of the latest data and forecasts in one place.


State of the Nation / October


State of the Nation / September


Our plan for a Green Recovery